Milan-San Remo | Preview A quick overview of the contenders for the 2011 Milan-San Remo. Heinrich Haussler Why he wins Haussler has looked very impressive since the start of the year - his back-to-back stage wins in the Tour of Qatar are testament to that. Even more impressive was the ease with which he won the Paris-Nice Stage 4 bunch kick for 5th on the Day Voeckler and his cohorts stayed away. For mine, just about the best taken bunch sprint of the year in a season which has already thrown up some super wins for all of the top line sprinters starting way back at the Tour Down Under Cancer Council Classic. Haussler’s frustration at not actually taking the stage win that day as well as having to settle for a string of high-placed finishes that should have been victories will have added extra motivation. HH knows that Milan-San Remo is his one big chance for the Spring - the downside of being a member of arguably the hottest one day classics team in the World Tour alongside Hushovd and Farrar. In fact, Garmin are so strong they even have a Plan D in Roger Hammond and Plans E through G with Klier, Van Summeren and Matt Wilson. Impressive. Fortunately for Haussler, Hushovd has eyes for one big prize this Spring - winning Paris-Roubaix whilst wearing the rainbow jersey. Hushovd needs Haussler to ride for him in April and that is why he’ll ride for Haussler in la classica di Primavera. Likewise Farrar will get his crack at the Ronde van Vlaanderen (a race I’m convinced he will win one day) and needs the help of both Hushovd and Haussler there and later in his lead out train for the Tour de France. Much has been made of Haussler’s narrow loss to Cavendish two years ago. Whilst it certainly serves as an additional motivator to the young Australian, it’s worth remembering that Haussler was actually meant to be riding for Hushovd (3rd) that day. Hushovd was furious at his team mate for costing him what he felt was a certain victory. Ironically, by riding for Haussler in 2011, Hushovd will guarantee the loyalty of his team mate on the cobblestones of Paris-Roubaix. A bargain in every sense of the word as far as Hushovd is concerned. Why he doesn’t Tactics. Although Garmin will be riding for a Haussler win, during the race they will need to play different cards at different times as the race unfolds. This includes having someone like Wilson or Hammond in the early break which can get out to a lead of 20+ minutes, to having riders like Van Summeren and Klier covering early moves on the three closing climbs and then having Hushovd and Farrar watching for moves by the likes of Gilbert and Pozzato on the Cipressa and the Poggio. Regardless of how the race plays out, I expect that a member of Team Garmin-Cervelo will be the winner - it just might not be Haussler. Oscar Freire Why he wins Former winner, Freire has been flying under the radar in the lead up to the race he has won three times since 2004. This kind of preparation usually means he’s about to pull a big one out of the bag. In the case of Freire this usually means victory at Milan-San Remo or at the World Championships, a race he has also won three times. Also in the Spaniard’s favour, Rabobank have had their most impressive start to the year in a very long time; and with the inclusion of Lars Boom and Michael Mathews and a bunch of Dutch hardmen, Rabobank are one of the few teams that can look to match Garmin tactically. Freire’s fast finish and his strength at the end of 300km of racing are well documented. His secret weapon, however, is his guile - and it is this that he’ll use to win his latest ‘Monument’. Why he doesn’t The next generation of sprinters and one day stars have been snapping at Freire’s heels for a couple of years now and 2011 is the year they gobble him up. Haussler, Farrar, Goss, Cav, Sagan, EBH and even team mate Boom are the kind of riders that are going to make it difficult for Freire to pad out his already impressive palmares. Mark Cavendish Why he wins Cav surprised everyone when he won la classica di Primavera back in 2009 - everyone other than himself that is. Expertly shepherded over the Cipressa and the Poggio by his team, Cav picked Heinrich Haussler’s pocket right on the line. At just 23 years of age, the pundits didn’t think Cav would have the strength to be in contention at the end of the 300km - just as many of them (myself included) are discounting the chances of his team mate Goss and the other young Australian, Michael Mathews. Whist Cav hasn’t been blessed with sparkling form in the early part of the year, he still has in his possession the two attributes that have made him such a superstar: his steely-eyed determination, and the fastest finishing sprint in the business. Cav loves nothing more than proving people wrong. The more people he proves wrong, the better. Expect him to do it once more with feeling. Why he doesn’t Something is messing with Cav’s mojo at the moment. There has been much talk about how happy (or unhappy) he may or may not be with his current team. Although he loves and respects his team mates (Renshaw, Eisel and Grabsch in particular) there is quite a bit of speculation about just how little he is being paid by HTC-Columbia given his true market value. Having watched him drag his arse around bike races in Australia, the Middle East and Europe for the past three months, his face permanently in grimace, it’s difficult to see him get himself over the always decisive Cipressa and the Poggio with the main contenders. Philippe Gilbert Why he wins His brilliance in one day races over all kinds of parcours is unmatched in today’s peloton. As usual, he’s on super form at this time of the year and he’s one of the few riders other than the sprinters who can genuinely fancy themselves to win this year. He will have noted the victory by Pozzato in 2006 and especially that of Cancellara in 2008 to know that it is not mission impossible. He’ll need to attack on either the Cipressa or the Poggio, or knowing him, possibly even both, to win. Who he has for company over the closing kilometres determines his chances. If he has a couple of Katushas, a Rabobank and a Leopard Trek get away with him, they’ll have the firepower to stay away and he’ll outsprint them at the finish. If he arrives at the finish with all the big sprinters, they’ll dust him. Why he doesn’t It’s rare for a non sprinter to take the spoils at Milan-San Remo and the quality of this year’s field all but assures that a sprinter will win it this year. Gilbert is good, no great. But even his greatness is no guarantee. Other Contenders Matt Goss Goss will be a protected rider this year, with HTC-Highroad taking out some insurance on an out of sorts Cav. For mine, I have a big question mark over the still relatively young Goss having the firepower to win the sprint after 300km of racing. Having said that, I’m convinced it is a race he will win one day, and quite possibly more than once. I’m just not sure 2011 is his year. Fabian Cancellara Spartacus is one of several former winners in the field (Freire, Boonen, Pozzato, Cavendish and Petacchi) who must be considered a genuine chance. Like Gilbert, Cancellara will need to get away as he did in 2008 if he is to have any chance of victory. Unfortunately, his form has been a little patchy this year and I suspect this year’s MSR is more about training for Flanders and Roubaix than it is genuinely pressing for the win. That’s why he’ll ride for Bennati. Allan Davis Alby has a pretty decent team at his disposal and has been in the mix at MSR on several occasions. There are other riders more fancied but another podium finish and even a win are definitely possible. Alessandro Petacchi Petacchi is another former winner that needs to be considered. Unfortunately for Ale Jet, a bout of illness this week all but rules him out. You have to be 100 per cent fit to win here, even 95 per cent won’t cut it. Peter Sagan Another youngster that might struggle with the distance but he’s a classy bike rider in the process of building a formidable palmares. Maybe, just maybe, Milan-San Remo may be its latest addition. Greg Van Avermaet A bit of a smokey but this guy is tough and has a genuine sprint that could hold up pretty well at the end of 300km in the right conditions. He also has a damn good team riding at his disposal, with Ballan and Burghardt not without a chance as well. View high resolution

Milan-San Remo | Preview

A quick overview of the contenders for the 2011 Milan-San Remo.

Heinrich Haussler

Why he wins
Haussler has looked very impressive since the start of the year - his back-to-back stage wins in the Tour of Qatar are testament to that. Even more impressive was the ease with which he won the Paris-Nice Stage 4 bunch kick for 5th on the Day Voeckler and his cohorts stayed away. For mine, just about the best taken bunch sprint of the year in a season which has already thrown up some super wins for all of the top line sprinters starting way back at the Tour Down Under Cancer Council Classic. Haussler’s frustration at not actually taking the stage win that day as well as having to settle for a string of high-placed finishes that should have been victories will have added extra motivation.

HH knows that Milan-San Remo is his one big chance for the Spring - the downside of being a member of arguably the hottest one day classics team in the World Tour alongside Hushovd and Farrar. In fact, Garmin are so strong they even have a Plan D in Roger Hammond and Plans E through G with Klier, Van Summeren and Matt Wilson. Impressive. Fortunately for Haussler, Hushovd has eyes for one big prize this Spring - winning Paris-Roubaix whilst wearing the rainbow jersey. Hushovd needs Haussler to ride for him in April and that is why he’ll ride for Haussler in la classica di Primavera. Likewise Farrar will get his crack at the Ronde van Vlaanderen (a race I’m convinced he will win one day) and needs the help of both Hushovd and Haussler there and later in his lead out train for the Tour de France.

Much has been made of Haussler’s narrow loss to Cavendish two years ago. Whilst it certainly serves as an additional motivator to the young Australian, it’s worth remembering that Haussler was actually meant to be riding for Hushovd (3rd) that day. Hushovd was furious at his team mate for costing him what he felt was a certain victory. Ironically, by riding for Haussler in 2011, Hushovd will guarantee the loyalty of his team mate on the cobblestones of Paris-Roubaix. A bargain in every sense of the word as far as Hushovd is concerned.

Why he doesn’t
Tactics. Although Garmin will be riding for a Haussler win, during the race they will need to play different cards at different times as the race unfolds. This includes having someone like Wilson or Hammond in the early break which can get out to a lead of 20+ minutes, to having riders like Van Summeren and Klier covering early moves on the three closing climbs and then having Hushovd and Farrar watching for moves by the likes of Gilbert and Pozzato on the Cipressa and the Poggio. Regardless of how the race plays out, I expect that a member of Team Garmin-Cervelo will be the winner - it just might not be Haussler.

Oscar Freire

Why he wins
Former winner, Freire has been flying under the radar in the lead up to the race he has won three times since 2004. This kind of preparation usually means he’s about to pull a big one out of the bag. In the case of Freire this usually means victory at Milan-San Remo or at the World Championships, a race he has also won three times. Also in the Spaniard’s favour, Rabobank have had their most impressive start to the year in a very long time; and with the inclusion of Lars Boom and Michael Mathews and a bunch of Dutch hardmen, Rabobank are one of the few teams that can look to match Garmin tactically. Freire’s fast finish and his strength at the end of 300km of racing are well documented. His secret weapon, however, is his guile - and it is this that he’ll use to win his latest ‘Monument’.

Why he doesn’t
The next generation of sprinters and one day stars have been snapping at Freire’s heels for a couple of years now and 2011 is the year they gobble him up. Haussler, Farrar, Goss, Cav, Sagan, EBH and even team mate Boom are the kind of riders that are going to make it difficult for Freire to pad out his already impressive palmares.

Mark Cavendish

Why he wins
Cav surprised everyone when he won la classica di Primavera back in 2009 - everyone other than himself that is. Expertly shepherded over the Cipressa and the Poggio by his team, Cav picked Heinrich Haussler’s pocket right on the line. At just 23 years of age, the pundits didn’t think Cav would have the strength to be in contention at the end of the 300km - just as many of them (myself included) are discounting the chances of his team mate Goss and the other young Australian, Michael Mathews.

Whist Cav hasn’t been blessed with sparkling form in the early part of the year, he still has in his possession the two attributes that have made him such a superstar: his steely-eyed determination, and the fastest finishing sprint in the business. Cav loves nothing more than proving people wrong. The more people he proves wrong, the better. Expect him to do it once more with feeling.

Why he doesn’t
Something is messing with Cav’s mojo at the moment. There has been much talk about how happy (or unhappy) he may or may not be with his current team. Although he loves and respects his team mates (Renshaw, Eisel and Grabsch in particular) there is quite a bit of speculation about just how little he is being paid by HTC-Columbia given his true market value. Having watched him drag his arse around bike races in Australia, the Middle East and Europe for the past three months, his face permanently in grimace, it’s difficult to see him get himself over the always decisive Cipressa and the Poggio with the main contenders.

Philippe Gilbert

Why he wins
His brilliance in one day races over all kinds of parcours is unmatched in today’s peloton. As usual, he’s on super form at this time of the year and he’s one of the few riders other than the sprinters who can genuinely fancy themselves to win this year. He will have noted the victory by Pozzato in 2006 and especially that of Cancellara in 2008 to know that it is not mission impossible. He’ll need to attack on either the Cipressa or the Poggio, or knowing him, possibly even both, to win. Who he has for company over the closing kilometres determines his chances. If he has a couple of Katushas, a Rabobank and a Leopard Trek get away with him, they’ll have the firepower to stay away and he’ll outsprint them at the finish. If he arrives at the finish with all the big sprinters, they’ll dust him.

Why he doesn’t
It’s rare for a non sprinter to take the spoils at Milan-San Remo and the quality of this year’s field all but assures that a sprinter will win it this year. Gilbert is good, no great. But even his greatness is no guarantee.

Other Contenders

Matt Goss
Goss will be a protected rider this year, with HTC-Highroad taking out some insurance on an out of sorts Cav. For mine, I have a big question mark over the still relatively young Goss having the firepower to win the sprint after 300km of racing. Having said that, I’m convinced it is a race he will win one day, and quite possibly more than once. I’m just not sure 2011 is his year.

Fabian Cancellara
Spartacus is one of several former winners in the field (Freire, Boonen, Pozzato, Cavendish and Petacchi) who must be considered a genuine chance. Like Gilbert, Cancellara will need to get away as he did in 2008 if he is to have any chance of victory. Unfortunately, his form has been a little patchy this year and I suspect this year’s MSR is more about training for Flanders and Roubaix than it is genuinely pressing for the win. That’s why he’ll ride for Bennati.

Allan Davis
Alby has a pretty decent team at his disposal and has been in the mix at MSR on several occasions. There are other riders more fancied but another podium finish and even a win are definitely possible.

Alessandro Petacchi
Petacchi is another former winner that needs to be considered. Unfortunately for Ale Jet, a bout of illness this week all but rules him out. You have to be 100 per cent fit to win here, even 95 per cent won’t cut it.

Peter Sagan
Another youngster that might struggle with the distance but he’s a classy bike rider in the process of building a formidable palmares. Maybe, just maybe, Milan-San Remo may be its latest addition.

Greg Van Avermaet
A bit of a smokey but this guy is tough and has a genuine sprint that could hold up pretty well at the end of 300km in the right conditions. He also has a damn good team riding at his disposal, with Ballan and Burghardt not without a chance as well.

Notes

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