Ronde van Vlaanderen | Preview
A quick overview of the contenders for the 2011 Tour of Flanders.
Fabian Cancellara
Why he wins
Cancellara was responsible for ‘the moment’ of 2010 - accelerating up and over the Kapelmuur in last year’s Flanders, blowing the doors off Tom Boonen to take the most impressive of victories. Given the form he displayed in winning E3 Prijs Vlaanderen last weekend, Spartacus has given every indication that he’s primed to dish out exactly the same kind of treatment to the rest of the field this year. When he’s on form he is unstoppable, indeed, even punctures and equipment failures couldn’t bring him undone last weekend. The strength and smarts of his team shouldn’t be underestimated either, typified by the likes of Stuey O’Grady, a tough nut on great form himself who reads a race as well as anyone in the peloton. Cancellara’s team mates will protect him all the way to the Molenberg before the big Swiss barges his way towards the front and grinds the opposition into the cobbles. Another ‘monument’ in the bag for Spartacus.
Why he doesn’t
The ABC Club. ‘Anyone But Cancellara’ will be the motto of the other 24 teams on the start line. Tactically, the only way anyone other than Cancellara wins is for all the other teams to be constantly on the attack and ensuring that it is his team, Leopard-Trek, that has to close down all the moves. If the other contenders mark each other out of the contest, Cancellara smashes them in the last 20 kilometres or so - I’m looking at you Pozzato. It is imperative that Cancellara and his team be forced to spend more petrol than they would prefer to in the first 200kms. Breakaways, more breakaways, counter attacks and even the kitchen sink - throw the lot at him. And there are plenty of teams with multiple cards to play that will be more than willing: BMC, Garmin, HTC, Omega Pharma-Lotto, Sky and Katusha the teams most likely.
Philippe Gilbert
Why he wins
His brilliance in one day races over all kinds of parcours is unmatched in today’s peloton. Gilbert wins big races - not just because he has the legs but also because he has the smarts. Even more importantly, he has the panache to combine the two to deadly effect. Third in the last two editions of the Ronde, it is inevitable that that this brilliant Belgian cyclist will one day claim this most famous of Flandrian classics. And if any cyclist is to prosper from the efforts of the ‘ABC Club’ it in all likelihood will be Gilbert. He can get himself into breakaways but it will be on the counter attack where he stakes his claim - powering away from the front of the field while Cancellara watches on in frustration as the ‘ABC Club’ refuse to chase down one of their own.
Why he doesn’t
There will be others seeking to benefit from the counter attack: Ballan, Flecha, Nuyens, Chainel and the Russians of Katusha especially. Gilbert is too classy to chase them down and tow Cancellara back into the race Pozzato style. That’s why he’ll finish 3rd for the 3rd straight year.
Alessandro Ballan
Why he wins
I love the way this guy rides his bike and the way he looks when he’s doing it. A former winner of the Ronde in 2007, the 2008 World Champ is bristling with the kind of form that brought him those kinds of victories. Ballan is a wonderful team man, brilliant on behalf of Evans in Tirreno–Adriatico this year, he has a hugely experienced team who will bury themselves for the likeable Italian this weekend. Five of his team mates have finished in the top ten at Flanders previously and Team BMC will look to play all of these cards at some stage in their efforts to soften up Cancellara. Ballan has been one of the great animators this spring with his only consolation a 2nd behind Gilbert at Montepaschi Strade Bianche and a 4th at Milan-San Remo. When the action hots up inside the final 60km expect to see Alessandro in the thick of it again. The reward for his efforts this time will be the sweet, sweet taste of victory.
Why he doesn’t
Cancellara has his day and the sprinters snag the minor placings in the bunch sprint a minute back. Alessandro finishes top five behind Boonen, a Garmin and Matty Goss.
Tom Boonen
Why he wins
Up until last year, if you were assembling a rider to win the Ronde out of spare parts laying around it would look uncannily like Tom Boonen. Boonen is a two time winner at Flanders - a cobblestone classics star with the power to get over climbs like the Kwaremont, Molenberg and the Muur-Kapelmuur and then unleash a finishing sprint to dust all his rivals at the end of 260km. Then along came Cancellara. If you were assembling a rider to win the Ronde these days, he now looks exactly like Spartacus. Boonen won’t be dismissed that easily this year, though. Tommeke was the other rider to win big last weekend, taking out Gent-Wevelgem and a swag of World Tour points for his Quickstep team in exactly the kind of way we’ve become used to at this time of year. Quickstep have more cards to play tactically this year compared to 2010 and they’ll have someone in the break early and on the counter later. Their number one plan will be to have Boonen out kick Gilbert and Cancellara in a small group and hope the Garmin three don’t spoil the party. Boonen is in just the right kind of form to do it too.
Why he doesn’t
If either of Hushovd, Haussler, Farrar or Goss are still there for the sprint finish, Boonen misses out. If the counter attack in the last 40km gets away, Boonen misses out. If Cancellara has his way again, Boonen misses out.
Other Contenders
Matt Goss
The march towards greatness of Matt Goss may well take another massive step forward this weekend. His brilliant win at Milan-San Remo this year stamped him as one of the brightest new stars in the cycling firmament. This guy can sprint; he can climb and then sprint; and he can climb, ride 300km and then outsprint some of the biggest names in cycling. If you can do that, you can win the Ronde. Unfortunately for Goss he’s been struggling with a cold for the past week or so and that may leave him a little underdone. On the plus side, the pressure is off him and his team after his victory at Milan-San Remo; and there will be lots of other teams expected to rough-up Team Leopard-Trek, meaning Goss and HTC-Highroad can follow the wheels, stay out of the wind and aim to dust them in the bunch kick.
Juan Antonio Flecha
If the break or the counter attack is the tactic that succeeds in loosening Cancellara’s grasp on this year’s race, it’s hard to discount Flecha who is a dab hand at both. There’s a lot to like about Flecha’s form this year. Slowly building in intensity since Qatar and Oman, the Spaniard is usually in the right place at the right time come April. Team Sky look very strong on paper and much like BMC and Ballan, Flecha and his team mates will be knee deep in the tactical battle to upset Leopard-Trek. With a little luck, this card carrying member of the ‘ABC Club’ may just have the last laugh, just as long as Pozzato doesn’t breach the trust.
The Garmin Three
Hushovd, Haussler and Farrar are all capable of winning this race. Unfortunately, the one day classics dream team that was spawned out of the merger between Cervelo Test Team and Garmin haven’t had the luck or the success many predicted at the beginning of the year. They’ve got the right kind of team to play different cards throughout the race and I expect them to be in the thick of action early, insisting that at least one or two of their men are in the break. Garmin need to unleash their inner mongrel. No more Mr Nice Guys. They need to smash ‘em and bash ‘em and enforce their will on this race; not sit mid-field and fall victim to crashes and bad luck and poor planning like they have in previous weeks. If only Hushovd, Haussler and Farrar had Matty White in the team car yapping at their heels. If they did, they’d be all but certainties - and for that, Vaughters has only himself to blame. For mine, Farrar is the man most likely - his best bet, outsprinting the likes of Flecha and Ballan from the small group that gets away on the counter attack.
Nick Nuyens
In form, this smokey might surprise the big guns with the same kind of guile he used to win Dwars door Vlaanderen in a late breakaway a couple of weeks ago. His team mates are talking him up and he’s the kind of rider with the strength and bunch kick to make some hay if given even the slightest hint of sunshine.
