![Paris-Roubaix | preview
A quick overview of the contenders for the 2011 Queen of the Classics.
Fabian Cancellara
Why he wins The world’s strongest rider and two-time winner of Paris-Roubaix will be even more motivated this year having been pipped on the line twice this Spring - first by Goss in Milan-San Remo; and then by Nyuens and Chavanel in Flanders. No surprise then that Cancellara dropped his guard ever so slightly in a post-Flanders press conference this week to voice his displeasure: “I lost by trying to win, the others rode only to make me lose. And in the end the one who was always in the wheels won. Congratulations to Nuyens, but for me [winning] like that has no value.” Ouch.
Watching Cancellara ride over the pave is one of modern cycling’s great pleasures. There is something quite mesmeric about the seemingly effortless rhythm of his cadence and how it is capable of producing such brutal power. Changes to the parcours this year are more likely to suit the teams with a powerful rider able to fend for themselves more so than those relying on the tactical advantage of having the strongest team. The addition of the Millonfosse (1.4 km), a new sector of pave just 4km after the critical Trouée d’Arenberg (Forest of Arenberg), means that the team mates of the favourites shelled during the Forest of Arenberg won’t enjoy the luxury of a flat, sealed 10km in order to chase back on. What this means is that Cancellara is likely to find himself out in front one-on-one with the other big names, which is exactly the place he wants to be. All he needs to do is bide his time until Sector 10, the Mons-en-Pévèle (3km) where he rides them off his wheel in exactly the same way he did as last year. Game over. Victory number three in the bag.
Why he doesn’t The ABC Club, ‘Anyone But Cancellara’ are still backslapping themselves after their great victory over Spartacus last week at the Ronde. They’ll fancy themselves again this week but the tactics will need to be different - they won’t be able to rely on Team BMC to do all the work to pull the field back together like it did last Sunday. Once the race hits the Forest of Arenberg and the field splits up, there’ll be no way for the likes of the strong teams to pull it back together which means that the early break will be the only way riders like Chavanel, Cooke, Hincapie, Thomas and Goss can expect to have team mates to help them in the closing stages.
The break(s) will have to go early and I expect them to be large in size with many of the top teams hoping to have at least two riders up the road in order to put them at the service of their team leaders in the closing 70km or so when the big names finally reel the remnants of the breakaway in. If they succeed they can set themselves up for the attack and counter attack and look to grind Cancellara down. They can also be safe in the knowledge that if any of them make it in to the velodrome with Spartacus, they’ll dust him in the sprint.
The other possible factor for consideration is just how much Cancellara will be affected by the heat with the forecast predicting a high of 25°C. He struggled to eat and drink enough during Flanders on a warmish day and complained of cramp in the closing kilometres. It’s also worth remembering that the last time Roubaix was run on a hot day, Spartacus struggled, opening the door for O’Grady to take his famous victory.
Tom Boonen
Why he wins Perennial favourite and three-time winner already, the one thing Boonen won’t be doing in this year’s race is heading down to the back of the lead group to enjoy a snack at exactly the moment the group hits the Mons-en-Pévèle. For this is precisely what happened last year when Cancellara caught Tommeke napping and rode off in to the sunset to the sound track of Bjarne Riis cackling away in the team car.
And Boonen won’t make the same mistake as last week where his bizarre attack with his team mate up the road was the catalyst for Cancellara to blow the race to bits. His is the most simple of propositions - sit on Cancellara’s wheel all the way to the velodrome and then smash him in the sprint. OK, Tom? Keep it simple and victory is yours.
Why he doesn’t Boonen was super strong last year and he looks in similar nick this year. Unfortunately, he seems to be in the grip of the most severe case of tactical ineptitude seen by a top rider in quite some time. I’m not sure what kind of mind-bogglingly stupid thing Boonen has planned for this year’s race but I’m sure he won’t disappoint - maybe he’ll even try to out-Spartacus Spartacus. Result? Fail. The other problem Boonen has is that previously he was usually the fastest sprinter left at the end but this year he may well be troubled by the likes of Hushovd, Goss, Thomas and Cooke who are all capable of outsprinting the Belgian on their day. If the race unfolds with some of them still in contention, Boonen will not have it all his own way.
Thor Hushovd
Why he wins From the very moment Hushovd pulled on the Rainbow Jersey for the first time in Geelong he has been dreaming about winning Paris-Roubaix clad in the colours of the World Champion. 3rd in 2009 and 2nd last year, Hushovd is primed to climb to the top of the podium on the back of his killer finishing sprint and plenty of ground work undertaken by his team to get him in the right position. The 30km before the Forest of Arenberg will be even more insane than usual given the changes to the parcours this year and Garmin will be able to rely on the speed and sprinting smarts of Haussler and Farrar to ensure Hushovd is well placed. From here on his tactics are similar to Boonen’s. Follow the wheels and then smoke them in the sprint. And let’s not forget that Big Thor doesn’t mind the warmer weather (unlike Cancellara) having claimed his World Championship on a very warm day at Geelong.
My only advice to Garmin would be to ensure that they have hard man Peter Van Petegem at the wheel of the team car and they drop Vaughters off at a nice cafe somewhere. There is history to be made here and you don’t make history at Paris-Roubaix by sprinting for 3rd.
Why he doesn’t If Garmin are slack and inattentive like they were in Milan-San Remo then Thor is in danger of being out of position when they hit the Forest of Arenberg. If you’re in the wrong spot here and get caught up behind a crash then there is every chance that your race is as good as over. Equally, if the Professor is more intent managing risks tactically rather than nailing the argyle to the mast, Garmin will get out foxed and out muscled by teams willing to bet the lot.
Juan Antonio Flecha
Why he wins Mr Consistency when it comes to Paris-Roubaix (3rd in 2005, 4th in 2006, 2nd in 2007, 6th in 2009, 3rd in 2010), Flecha has looked terrific all year. What makes him look even more threatening this year is the quality, experience and depth of his team. Imagine having Arvesen, Barry, Hayman, Hunt, Stannard, Thomas and Wiggins at your service - half of them are more than capable of winning the race themselves given the right conditions.
Sky will be one of the most active teams in the early stages of the race, looking to get the likes of Hayman, Hunt and Stannard in the early break. Hard man Arvesen and powerhouse Wiggins will ensure that both Flecha and Thomas are well positioned as they approach Arenberg. With a little luck, Flecha and GT are in the mix in the closing kilometres with possibly Hayman there to help keep them there. The pair should be able to attack and counter attack to soften-up their rivals, especially Cancellara who they will be hoping is isolated and forced to chase everything. Flecha’s biggest chance will be on the counter attack in the final 20km where he will be hoping that the rest of the front group are looking at each other and hesitate. If he gets 30 or 40 seconds he’s a big chance to stay away and take a victory that has always seemed just out of reach.
Why he doesn’t If he arrives with two or three others at the finish, in all likelihood it will be one of the sprinters like Boonen, Hushovd, Goss or Thomas who dust him up in the velodrome. The other scenario is that Spartacus does what he does best and he’ll have to be content with another top 5 finish a minute or so back.
Other contenders
Sylvain Chavanel For mine, Chavanel’s was the best ride at the Ronde last weekend. Out in front early, he was then the only rider able to stay with Cancellara, before getting checked in the sprint and having to settle for a magnificent 2nd place. He’s been prominent all Spring and there is a lot to like about his chances again this Sunday. His best Roubaix finish was 8th in 2009 but after a brilliant 2010 with two stage wins at the Tour, he has raced with the kind of panache this year that might just net him his first monument.
Fillipo Pozzato After Hushovd, Pozzato seems to be the rider under the most pressure to produce a result in Paris-Roubaix. His Russian paymasters are growing restless. They’re tiring of the negative press around Pozzato as being the great follower; and they must also be somewhat concerned that his negative tactics seem to have rubbed off on the previously furious attacking riding of his Russian team mates. Pippo used to win a lot of races, lately he seems to be settling for 2nds, 4ths and 5ths. It’s amazing what a good rider is capable of when his very livelihood is under threat - this may just be the motivator that Pozzato was looking for and the Italian might just surprise us all.
Matt Goss The number one ranked rider in the world was under the weather at Flanders but with his cold now shaken off and some racing kilometres in his legs in the past week, the super quick, super fast, young Aussie will have a second monument in his sights. Goss isn’t just fast he’s also incredibly tactically astute, capable of keeping himself out of the wind in the early stages of a race and then able to follow the right wheels when the race is opening up and selections are being made. If Goss is still with the big guns 20km from the finish he will be all but unbeatable. This is no 50/1 outsider, the bookies have seriously miscalculated here.
Geraint Thomas Thomas has been flying under the radar somewhat this Spring. He’s been stringing together some tidy performances in support of bigger names this year and his 10th at Flanders was a terrific ride. The young Brit knows how to take a win when he gets his chance and he’ll have some free rein along with Flecha on Sunday as well as the support of a very, very good team. The British National Champ can sprint and if he’s there at the end he is more than capable of pulling off a massive upset.
George Hincapie The old man has looked fantastic all year. He rode his guts out for Evans at Tirreno-Adriatico and has been building and building his form throughout the northern classics. Big George was still there in the thick of it at the end of Flanders last week and ended up finishing a very respectable 6th. Hincapie forms a potent double pronged attack with Ballan and once again they have a stellar squad in support. In fact, this is probably the best team Hincapie has ever had at his disposal for any edition of Paris-Roubaix. And it’s for this very reason that I fancy him as my smokey.
No longer one of the top-line favourites as he has been in previous years, Hincapie’s desire for victory in Paris-Roubaix is unmatched by anyone, Hushovd included. Team BMC is full of smarts, and some very hard men in excellent form. Lelangue will have left no stone unturned in preparation for the race and a victory for Hincapie in this year’s race will be his way of saying thankyou to Hincapie for joining the Team BMC experiment back at the end of 2009.
Baden Cooke This is my double extra smokey with special sauce. Cookie has now spent a couple of years at Saxo Bank under the tutelage of Bjarne Riis as he seeks to turn himself into a genuine one day classics rider. He was great last week at Flanders in support of Nyuens and will be full of confidence after the success of his team mate. Riis will be extremely motivated once again to spoil the party of Spartacus the deserter. If anyone can gee-up a rider to deliver the ride of their life, it’s Riis. And if the bookies were silly enough to frame a price on a Cooke victory I’d be keen to have the smallest of dabbles.](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ljdrktqfv21qzcmi0o1_500.jpg)
Paris-Roubaix | preview
A quick overview of the contenders for the 2011 Queen of the Classics.
Fabian Cancellara
Why he wins
The world’s strongest rider and two-time winner of Paris-Roubaix will be even more motivated this year having been pipped on the line twice this Spring - first by Goss in Milan-San Remo; and then by Nyuens and Chavanel in Flanders. No surprise then that Cancellara dropped his guard ever so slightly in a post-Flanders press conference this week to voice his displeasure: “I lost by trying to win, the others rode only to make me lose. And in the end the one who was always in the wheels won. Congratulations to Nuyens, but for me [winning] like that has no value.” Ouch.
Watching Cancellara ride over the pave is one of modern cycling’s great pleasures. There is something quite mesmeric about the seemingly effortless rhythm of his cadence and how it is capable of producing such brutal power. Changes to the parcours this year are more likely to suit the teams with a powerful rider able to fend for themselves more so than those relying on the tactical advantage of having the strongest team. The addition of the Millonfosse (1.4 km), a new sector of pave just 4km after the critical Trouée d’Arenberg (Forest of Arenberg), means that the team mates of the favourites shelled during the Forest of Arenberg won’t enjoy the luxury of a flat, sealed 10km in order to chase back on. What this means is that Cancellara is likely to find himself out in front one-on-one with the other big names, which is exactly the place he wants to be. All he needs to do is bide his time until Sector 10, the Mons-en-Pévèle (3km) where he rides them off his wheel in exactly the same way he did as last year. Game over. Victory number three in the bag.
Why he doesn’t
The ABC Club, ‘Anyone But Cancellara’ are still backslapping themselves after their great victory over Spartacus last week at the Ronde. They’ll fancy themselves again this week but the tactics will need to be different - they won’t be able to rely on Team BMC to do all the work to pull the field back together like it did last Sunday. Once the race hits the Forest of Arenberg and the field splits up, there’ll be no way for the likes of the strong teams to pull it back together which means that the early break will be the only way riders like Chavanel, Cooke, Hincapie, Thomas and Goss can expect to have team mates to help them in the closing stages.
The break(s) will have to go early and I expect them to be large in size with many of the top teams hoping to have at least two riders up the road in order to put them at the service of their team leaders in the closing 70km or so when the big names finally reel the remnants of the breakaway in. If they succeed they can set themselves up for the attack and counter attack and look to grind Cancellara down. They can also be safe in the knowledge that if any of them make it in to the velodrome with Spartacus, they’ll dust him in the sprint.
The other possible factor for consideration is just how much Cancellara will be affected by the heat with the forecast predicting a high of 25°C. He struggled to eat and drink enough during Flanders on a warmish day and complained of cramp in the closing kilometres. It’s also worth remembering that the last time Roubaix was run on a hot day, Spartacus struggled, opening the door for O’Grady to take his famous victory.
Tom Boonen
Why he wins
Perennial favourite and three-time winner already, the one thing Boonen won’t be doing in this year’s race is heading down to the back of the lead group to enjoy a snack at exactly the moment the group hits the Mons-en-Pévèle. For this is precisely what happened last year when Cancellara caught Tommeke napping and rode off in to the sunset to the sound track of Bjarne Riis cackling away in the team car.
And Boonen won’t make the same mistake as last week where his bizarre attack with his team mate up the road was the catalyst for Cancellara to blow the race to bits. His is the most simple of propositions - sit on Cancellara’s wheel all the way to the velodrome and then smash him in the sprint. OK, Tom? Keep it simple and victory is yours.
Why he doesn’t
Boonen was super strong last year and he looks in similar nick this year. Unfortunately, he seems to be in the grip of the most severe case of tactical ineptitude seen by a top rider in quite some time. I’m not sure what kind of mind-bogglingly stupid thing Boonen has planned for this year’s race but I’m sure he won’t disappoint - maybe he’ll even try to out-Spartacus Spartacus. Result? Fail. The other problem Boonen has is that previously he was usually the fastest sprinter left at the end but this year he may well be troubled by the likes of Hushovd, Goss, Thomas and Cooke who are all capable of outsprinting the Belgian on their day. If the race unfolds with some of them still in contention, Boonen will not have it all his own way.
Thor Hushovd
Why he wins
From the very moment Hushovd pulled on the Rainbow Jersey for the first time in Geelong he has been dreaming about winning Paris-Roubaix clad in the colours of the World Champion. 3rd in 2009 and 2nd last year, Hushovd is primed to climb to the top of the podium on the back of his killer finishing sprint and plenty of ground work undertaken by his team to get him in the right position. The 30km before the Forest of Arenberg will be even more insane than usual given the changes to the parcours this year and Garmin will be able to rely on the speed and sprinting smarts of Haussler and Farrar to ensure Hushovd is well placed. From here on his tactics are similar to Boonen’s. Follow the wheels and then smoke them in the sprint. And let’s not forget that Big Thor doesn’t mind the warmer weather (unlike Cancellara) having claimed his World Championship on a very warm day at Geelong.
My only advice to Garmin would be to ensure that they have hard man Peter Van Petegem at the wheel of the team car and they drop Vaughters off at a nice cafe somewhere. There is history to be made here and you don’t make history at Paris-Roubaix by sprinting for 3rd.
Why he doesn’t
If Garmin are slack and inattentive like they were in Milan-San Remo then Thor is in danger of being out of position when they hit the Forest of Arenberg. If you’re in the wrong spot here and get caught up behind a crash then there is every chance that your race is as good as over. Equally, if the Professor is more intent managing risks tactically rather than nailing the argyle to the mast, Garmin will get out foxed and out muscled by teams willing to bet the lot.
Juan Antonio Flecha
Why he wins
Mr Consistency when it comes to Paris-Roubaix (3rd in 2005, 4th in 2006, 2nd in 2007, 6th in 2009, 3rd in 2010), Flecha has looked terrific all year. What makes him look even more threatening this year is the quality, experience and depth of his team. Imagine having Arvesen, Barry, Hayman, Hunt, Stannard, Thomas and Wiggins at your service - half of them are more than capable of winning the race themselves given the right conditions.
Sky will be one of the most active teams in the early stages of the race, looking to get the likes of Hayman, Hunt and Stannard in the early break. Hard man Arvesen and powerhouse Wiggins will ensure that both Flecha and Thomas are well positioned as they approach Arenberg. With a little luck, Flecha and GT are in the mix in the closing kilometres with possibly Hayman there to help keep them there. The pair should be able to attack and counter attack to soften-up their rivals, especially Cancellara who they will be hoping is isolated and forced to chase everything. Flecha’s biggest chance will be on the counter attack in the final 20km where he will be hoping that the rest of the front group are looking at each other and hesitate. If he gets 30 or 40 seconds he’s a big chance to stay away and take a victory that has always seemed just out of reach.
Why he doesn’t
If he arrives with two or three others at the finish, in all likelihood it will be one of the sprinters like Boonen, Hushovd, Goss or Thomas who dust him up in the velodrome. The other scenario is that Spartacus does what he does best and he’ll have to be content with another top 5 finish a minute or so back.
Other contenders
Sylvain Chavanel
For mine, Chavanel’s was the best ride at the Ronde last weekend. Out in front early, he was then the only rider able to stay with Cancellara, before getting checked in the sprint and having to settle for a magnificent 2nd place. He’s been prominent all Spring and there is a lot to like about his chances again this Sunday. His best Roubaix finish was 8th in 2009 but after a brilliant 2010 with two stage wins at the Tour, he has raced with the kind of panache this year that might just net him his first monument.
Fillipo Pozzato
After Hushovd, Pozzato seems to be the rider under the most pressure to produce a result in Paris-Roubaix. His Russian paymasters are growing restless. They’re tiring of the negative press around Pozzato as being the great follower; and they must also be somewhat concerned that his negative tactics seem to have rubbed off on the previously furious attacking riding of his Russian team mates. Pippo used to win a lot of races, lately he seems to be settling for 2nds, 4ths and 5ths. It’s amazing what a good rider is capable of when his very livelihood is under threat - this may just be the motivator that Pozzato was looking for and the Italian might just surprise us all.
Matt Goss
The number one ranked rider in the world was under the weather at Flanders but with his cold now shaken off and some racing kilometres in his legs in the past week, the super quick, super fast, young Aussie will have a second monument in his sights. Goss isn’t just fast he’s also incredibly tactically astute, capable of keeping himself out of the wind in the early stages of a race and then able to follow the right wheels when the race is opening up and selections are being made. If Goss is still with the big guns 20km from the finish he will be all but unbeatable. This is no 50/1 outsider, the bookies have seriously miscalculated here.
Geraint Thomas
Thomas has been flying under the radar somewhat this Spring. He’s been stringing together some tidy performances in support of bigger names this year and his 10th at Flanders was a terrific ride. The young Brit knows how to take a win when he gets his chance and he’ll have some free rein along with Flecha on Sunday as well as the support of a very, very good team. The British National Champ can sprint and if he’s there at the end he is more than capable of pulling off a massive upset.
George Hincapie
The old man has looked fantastic all year. He rode his guts out for Evans at Tirreno-Adriatico and has been building and building his form throughout the northern classics. Big George was still there in the thick of it at the end of Flanders last week and ended up finishing a very respectable 6th. Hincapie forms a potent double pronged attack with Ballan and once again they have a stellar squad in support. In fact, this is probably the best team Hincapie has ever had at his disposal for any edition of Paris-Roubaix. And it’s for this very reason that I fancy him as my smokey.
No longer one of the top-line favourites as he has been in previous years, Hincapie’s desire for victory in Paris-Roubaix is unmatched by anyone, Hushovd included. Team BMC is full of smarts, and some very hard men in excellent form. Lelangue will have left no stone unturned in preparation for the race and a victory for Hincapie in this year’s race will be his way of saying thankyou to Hincapie for joining the Team BMC experiment back at the end of 2009.
Baden Cooke
This is my double extra smokey with special sauce. Cookie has now spent a couple of years at Saxo Bank under the tutelage of Bjarne Riis as he seeks to turn himself into a genuine one day classics rider. He was great last week at Flanders in support of Nyuens and will be full of confidence after the success of his team mate. Riis will be extremely motivated once again to spoil the party of Spartacus the deserter. If anyone can gee-up a rider to deliver the ride of their life, it’s Riis. And if the bookies were silly enough to frame a price on a Cooke victory I’d be keen to have the smallest of dabbles.
